The India-Pakistan conflict has long dominated global perceptions of Pakistan’s military capabilities, yet few recognize the nation’s quiet rise as a “benchmark case” for energy transition in the Global South.
Today, deep-blue solar panels carpet rooftops in Pakistan’s largest cities and dot rural courtyards like scattered jewels. With 240 million people, the country is experiencing one of the world’s fastest solar revolutions.
The influx of ultra-low-cost Chinese solar panels has transformed Pakistan into a colossal emerging market for photovoltaics (PV). Climate think tank Ember’s data reveals Pakistan imported 17 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels in 2024—more than doubling the previous year’s volume and cementing its position as the world’s third-largest PV importer.
“This trajectory is unique,” notes Mustafa Amjad, project director at Islamabad-based energy think tank Renewables First. While Vietnam, South Africa, and others are expanding solar, “no nation matches Pakistan’s speed or scale.”
What astonishes experts most is that this solar boom is a grassroots revolution—largely independent of large-scale solar farms. “This isn’t policy-driven; it’s a market choice by the people,” Amjad emphasizes.
“While Global South nations are often labeled ‘passive recipients’ of green tech, Pakistanis are voting with their wallets,” says Harjeet Singh, climate activist and founder of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation. Amid April’s 50°C heatwaves, solar power has become a lifeline for refrigeration.
Waqas Moosa, CEO of Hadron Solar and chair of the Pakistan Solar Association, attributes the surge to a “perfect storm” of factors: plummeting Chinese panel prices and skyrocketing local electricity tariffs.
Asha Amirali, a researcher at the University of Bath’s Centre for Development Studies, traces Pakistan’s power crisis to costly 1990s-era power purchase agreements (PPAs). Many PPAs were dollar-pegged, guaranteeing payments to generators regardless of production.
Over the past three years, electricity prices surged 155%, compounded by rupee devaluation and global gas price spikes triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war. The result: a “bottom-up energy uprising.”
Ember’s Global Insights director, Dave Jones, estimates Pakistan added roughly 15 GW of solar capacity last year—half its peak demand (30 GW)—despite lacking precise data. “The scale is staggering,” he says.
“View Islamabad’s rooftops via Google Earth, and you’ll be stunned by the solar coverage,” describes Jenny Chase, a BloombergNEF analyst. “This density of residential solar is rare globally.”
Pakistani power officials credit government policies, including zero-duty solar imports and net metering (allowing users to sell excess power back to the grid, now totaling ~4 GW). However, industry insiders argue the shift is fundamentally market-driven. “Ordinary households forced the market to import more panels,” Amjad asserts. Moosa likens it to “an energy sector TikTok revolution,” where “just as TikTok democratized content creation, solar is turning Pakistanis into both producers and consumers.” Paired with storage batteries, “power control shifts entirely to consumers.”
Yet the revolution carries risks. “Our grid will strain,” warns Moosa, citing a potential “death spiral”: high tariffs drive solar adoption → grid revenues shrink → remaining users face higher costs → accelerating grid defection. Power officials hint at “necessary measures” to stabilize the grid but remain vague.
Social equity looms larger. “Solar has become a luxury for the rich, while the poor remain trapped in costly, unreliable grids,” Amirali concedes.
Amjad, however, remains optimistic. In regions with daily power cuts, basic solar systems are proliferating. From single panels moved daily at village tire shops to farmer-funded solar irrigation wells, “this is what cheap solar means—power for the unpowered.”
Despite flaws, Pakistan’s experience holds global lessons. Singh highlights two takeaways: First, renewables are the “most economically rational path to decarbonization.” Second, grid upgrades must anticipate change.
Chase predicts similar solar surges elsewhere but warns of market volatility. South Africa’s 2023 solar boom, triggered by grid failures, ebbed as the government reinforced infrastructure.
For now, Pakistan stands as a Global South model for energy transition. Its success or failure will shape global views on distributed energy.
“We’re writing energy history,” Amjad concludes. “This story must be a success, not a cautionary tale.”
