Recently, the European Commission released the “EU Global Climate and Energy Vision,” outlining strategic goals to achieve a breakthrough in clean technology manufacturing and seize global dominance in climate regulations. However, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), scheduled for implementation in 2026, has triggered strong international backlash. Coupled with the EU’s own challenges in energy supply and technological competition, the prospects for realizing this ambitious strategy remain uncertain.
The core of the EU’s strategy focuses on an “industrial breakthrough,” explicitly aiming to increase its global market share in clean technology manufacturing to 15% and transition from a “green technology importer” to a “global supplier.” To achieve this, the EU has established a multi-dimensional implementation framework: an international promotion platform to support companies in expanding overseas, allocating 30% of the €200 billion “Global Europe” financing budget for climate cooperation, and promoting the alignment of global carbon pricing systems with EU standards. Member states like Germany have already taken the lead, setting a target for renewables to account for 80% of its energy mix by 2030.
The most contentious aspect of the strategy is the carbon tariff mechanism. While the EU claims it aims to prevent “carbon leakage,” the BRICS nations, at their 16th summit, adopted the “Kazan Declaration,” denouncing it as a “discriminatory protectionist measure” that violates international law and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” The impact on developing countries is particularly significant, with Indian industries potentially facing tariffs as high as 20-35%. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that this could exacerbate global development imbalances. Moreover, the mechanism initially covers sectors such as cement and steel but may later extend to automobiles and electronic devices, effectively creating a “green trade barrier.”
On energy supply, after cutting dependence on Russian energy, the EU’s reliance on U.S. liquefied natural gas has surged to 45%, with higher prices increasing economic costs. In renewables, although they accounted for 47% of the energy mix in 2024 (according to Eurostat data), the EU still falls short of its 2030 target. In the global clean technology race, the EU faces pressure from both China and the United States. China dominates 70% of the photovoltaic equipment market and 60% of the power battery market, while the U.S. is capturing emerging sectors through its relevant acts. Achieving the EU’s 15% market share target remains a significant challenge.
Analysis points out that the EU, with its high cumulative carbon emissions, should bear greater responsibility for emission reduction. Instead, it is transferring costs through carbon tariffs, violating the principles of fairness in climate governance. An Asian Development Bank report indicates that the mechanism would reduce global carbon emissions by less than 0.2%, offering limited climate benefits. If the EU persists with unilateralism, it risks not only fragmenting the global trade system but also facing a dilemma between its “strategic goals” and “international trust.” The advancement of global climate governance must return to the path of multilateral cooperation and fairness.
