According to a report from investment bank Roth Capital, details regarding US import tariffs on polysilicon products could be announced as early as the end of this month. Section 232 tariffs, originally scheduled for March 2026, might be accelerated to late October or mid-November, primarily due to escalating Sino-US tensions over rare earth trade.
The US officially initiated the Section 232 investigation into polysilicon on July 14, with the original 270-day investigation period set to conclude in March 2026. Roth Capital cited an anonymous source stating that the acceleration of the Section 232 investigation is linked to China’s announced rare earth export controls/ban, which has prompted the White House to expedite numerous actions.
Many analysts believe the Section 232 investigation could be highly significant for the US solar industry. The tariffs would likely apply to all silicon-based imports, including polysilicon itself and key components of the solar supply chain, such as wafers, solar cells, and modules.
Roth Capital also stated, “Attention should be paid to the polysilicon 232 quota structure, not just the tariff levels.” Section 232 is expected to take the form of a Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ), allowing a certain volume of the targeted products to enter the US market each year before tariffs apply.
Previously, the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) proposed specific tariff recommendations. The CPA suggested tariffs of $0.20 per watt on solar modules, $0.10 per watt on cells, $0.07 per watt on wafers, and $10 per kilogram on polysilicon imports. They also proposed TRQ thresholds of 30GW for silicon cells, wafers, and ingots from “secure, trusted ally countries,” and 40,000 metric tons for polysilicon.
In a September industry update, Roth Capital indicated that the final Section 232 ruling might resemble the CPA’s product-specific tariff proposals, even though there is no direct precedent.
Recently, South Korean chemical giant OCI Holdings acquired a majority stake in a Vietnamese wafer plant, aiming to provide its US subsidiary, Mission Solar, with non-FEOC solar wafer supply for its planned cell manufacturing facility.
While much of the supply chain remains uncertain, Roth Capital views Section 232 as a potential “positive catalyst” for First Solar. The company possesses the largest solar module manufacturing capacity in the US, and its cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology insulates it from the silicon-based solar product trade disputes.
