China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME) released its analysis of China’s photovoltaic (PV) product foreign trade in the first quarter of 2025. In Q1 2025 on May 12, saying that China’s PV product exports totaled $6.71 billion, down 30.5% year-on-year.
According to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s newly installed grid-connected PV capacity reached 59.7 GW in Q1 2025, up 30.5% year-on-year. For the first time, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power (1,482 GW) surpassed that of thermal power (1,451 GW), with policy support and evolving market dynamics accelerating China’s energy transition.
Overseas, in Q1 2025, China’s PV module exports to the European Union (EU) amounted to $1.8 billion, down 38.8% year-on-year, with export volume at approximately 18.6 GW, a 15.6% decline. China’s share of the EU market fell by 3 percentage points to 32.2%. Considering mature markets like Europe and the U.S., as well as emerging demand in Pakistan, the Middle East, and other regions, global installed capacity is expected to grow in 2025, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in 2024, with total installations projected between 500-550 GW.
Q1 PV Product Exports Down 30% Year-on-Year
Exports of PV wafers reached 290million,down52.1830 million, up 13.5% year-on-year, with volume at around 20.1 GW, a 51.1% increase. Module exports stood at $5.59 billion, down 33% year-on-year, with shipments of approximately 57.9 GW, a 7.4% drop.
Global PV Market Reshaped by Trade Frictions
- European Market: A Shrinking “Pillar”
In Q1 2025, China’s PV module exports to the EU amounted to $1.8 billion, down 38.8% year-on-year, with volume at approximately 18.6 GW, a 15.6% decline. China’s share of the EU market fell by 3 percentage points to 32.2%.
- U.S. Market: Escalating Tariff Conflicts, Slow Decoupling Efforts
Since 2011, the U.S., as the first country to initiate trade disputes against Chinese PV products, has repeatedly imposed global restrictions on China and its overseas production capacities. Affordable Chinese PV products have struggled to enter the U.S. market under stacked tariffs, while Southeast Asian PV production costs have surged due to high final anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) rates, pushing firms to relocate capacities to the Middle East and Latin America.
- Middle Eastern Market: “PV + Hydrogen” Reshaping Demand
With abundant solar resources and strong energy transition demands, the Middle East is a fertile ground for new energy firms. NEOM’s (Saudi Arabia’s New Future City) 10 GW integrated PV-hydrogen project has spurred demand for high-efficiency modules, with TOPCon modules accounting for 75% of procurement. Chinese firms like LONGi and JinkoSolar have supplied modules with bifaciality rates ≥85%, featuring weather-resistant designs to withstand sandstorms and diurnal temperature fluctuations. The 12 GW Phase IV project at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in the UAE exclusively adopted 210mm large-format TOPCon products from Chinese companies, significantly boosting power generation efficiency.
- Southeast Asian Market: Relocation Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures
Affected by the U.S. AD/CVD investigations, the operating rates of PV module factories in Vietnam and Malaysia have plummeted to below 20% from late 2024 to April 2025, when final tariff rates were announced. Indonesia, unlisted on U.S. tariff lists and offering low local labor and equipment relocation costs, has emerged as a key investment destination to circumvent U.S. policy risks. Chinese firms have begun constructing integrated cell and module production bases in Indonesia. For instance, Trina Solar’s 1 GW cell and module capacity is now in rapid production ramp-up, with utilization rates steadily increasing.
