The latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), “The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa,” reveals that electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa region has tripled since 2000, driven by cooling demand during extreme heat and desalination needs. It is projected to increase by another 50% by 2035, an amount equivalent to the current combined electricity demand of Germany and Spain, making energy structure transformation and grid upgrades urgently necessary.
The report highlights that the core drivers of this surge in electricity demand are two critical民生 needs: cooling electricity for households and businesses during extreme heat and energy consumption for desalination. According to estimates, these two demands alone will account for about 40% of the electricity growth in the next decade. Additionally, urbanization, accelerated industrialization, the adoption of electric transportation, and the rapid development of data centers are further exacerbating the pressure on electricity load.
From the perspective of energy supply structure, natural gas and oil still dominate the region’s electricity generation, accounting for over 90%, but a transition trend is emerging. To unlock the potential for oil exports, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq are gradually reducing oil-fired power generation. The IEA predicts that by 2035, natural gas will meet 50% of the region’s electricity demand growth, while oil’s share in power generation will drop from the current 20% to 5%.
The report forecasts that by 2035, solar power generation in the region will increase tenfold, with新增装机 reaching 200GW. The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix will rise from 6% in 2024 to around 25%. During the same period, nuclear power generation will also double. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized, “Over the next decade, the region needs to add over 300GW of electricity capacity, equivalent to three times Saudi Arabia’s current total发电量, to support the electricity demand driven by population and economic growth.”
However, the costs and challenges of meeting this demand cannot be overlooked. In 2024, investment in the region’s electricity sector reached $44 billion and is expected to grow by another 50% by 2035, with nearly 40% of the funds needed for grid upgrades—currently, the region’s grid loss rate is twice the global average. The IEA points out that grid upgrades and regional power interconnections are key to ensuring electricity security, while also requiring more energy storage facilities, improved demand-side flexibility, and retaining sufficient gas-fired power plants to address the intermittency of wind and solar power.
Improving energy efficiency is also seen as a critical solution. For example, the efficiency of air conditioners in the region is less than half that of Japan’s. Simply upgrading air conditioning equipment could reduce peak demand growth equivalent to Iraq’s entire current electricity capacity. The report also warns that if the region makes slow progress in diversifying its electricity structure, it will face multiple risks: CO2 emissions will continue to rise, and electricity demand for oil and gas could increase by over a quarter by 2035, leading to an $80 billion reduction in export revenue and a $20 billion increase in import bills.
