According to data from the supply chain platform Anza, U.S. solar module prices increased in the third quarter of 2025, as developers scrambled to meet the safe harbor deadline of September 2, 2025, for Investment Tax Credit (ITC) eligibility.
Anza’s latest pricing insights report shows that the median price from June to August rose by 3.7%, reaching $0.28 per watt. This represents an increase of $0.015 per watt compared to June levels.
This surge reflects the impact of new government regulations requiring projects larger than 1.5 MW to meet stricter commencement standards to qualify for the Investment Tax Credit.
Anza stated that the September deadline created a pull-forward effect, compressing fourth-quarter demand into late summer as developers acted swiftly to lock in tax credits before the cutoff. This policy-induced urgency appears to have overridden typical procurement considerations, with buyers prioritizing familiar suppliers and established relationships over compliance status.
The median U.S. module price in the third quarter increased by 3.7%, returning to the peak level seen in May.
Pricing pressure was particularly pronounced for modules non-compliant with Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules, with prices rising 9.2% from June to August. In comparison, FEOC-compliant modules saw a 4.9% increase. This suggests that developers rushing to meet the September deadline heavily relied on existing supply chains rather than prioritizing compliance requirements for future projects.
Anza’s data, representing median prices from over 40 suppliers accounting for more than 95% of U.S. module supply, underscores how policy deadlines and evolving compliance requirements continue to reshape solar procurement strategies and pricing dynamics.
Technology Trends
Module technology pricing patterns revealed significant shifts during the quarter. Mono PERC technology saw the steepest increase, rising approximately 10% to $0.275 per watt, as buyers leaned on its mature supply chain to meet tight deadlines. This technology maintained its position as the lowest-priced mainstream option.
TOPCon prices saw a modest increase to $0.28 per watt, with the historical premium over PERC compressing to nearly zero. Anza indicated that this suggests U.S. suppliers may be prioritizing domestically manufactured PERC products due to intellectual property concerns surrounding TOPCon technology.
Heterojunction (HJT) modules remained at a significant premium, rising to $0.39 per watt, though supply in the U.S. market continues to be limited.
Ongoing Supply Chain Diversification
Pricing based on cell origin reflected ongoing shifts in the supply chain, with most regions experiencing upward pressure. Modules from Southeast Asia subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) rose 3.7% to $0.305 per watt, while Indian modules increased by 5.2% to the same price point.
The Philippines, as the only Southeast Asian country not classified under AD/CVD measures, saw prices increase by 4.1% to $0.28 per watt, as significant manufacturing capacity continues to migrate to the region. Modules originating from the Middle East and Africa rose 3.9% to $0.265 per watt, while South Korea and Germany bucked the trend, declining by 8.8% to $0.31 per watt.
U.S. domestic cell content commanded the highest premium at $0.46 per watt, increasing by 5.7% during the quarter.
AD/CVD and Polygon Risks
Anza warned that anticipated AD/CVD determinations on India, Indonesia, and Laos, coupled with potential Section 232 tariffs on polysilicon, could introduce additional upward pressure on module prices in the fourth quarter.
Last week, prior to the report’s release, Anza CEO Mike Hall stated in an interview: “We had a very busy summer, first helping independent power producers looking to procure based on reciprocal tariffs in April. Then in July, we saw a wave of purchases ahead of the ‘Big and Beautiful Act’ (OBBB). After that, when Trump announced the request for the Treasury to modify the (safe harbor) guidance, another wave of purchases emerged. And after the guidance was issued, another wave hit before the September deadline.”
“Most of that is now in the past, so we are not seeing companies rushing to buy modules to secure the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or even to avoid the FEOC restrictions taking effect at the year-end. However, we still see accelerated solar procurement, mainly to get ahead of tariff or trade issues.”
“What everyone is focused on now is the potential Section 232 tariff on polysilicon, as there is too much uncertainty about its final outcome and its impact on finished solar modules—especially imported ones that do not use domestically produced polysilicon, which is almost always the case.”
