Data released by the Silicon Industry of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicate that polysilicon enterprises began securing a moderate volume of orders this week, with prices declining slightly. The average transaction price for N-type recharged polysilicon stood at 38,600 yuan/ton, down 1.53% week-on-week; N-type granular polysilicon remained flat at 36,000 yuan/ton; and P-type polysilicon averaged 31,300 yuan/ton, a 3.10% week-on-week drop.
The Silicon Industry attributed the minor price decline to two primary factors: oversized inventory levels and a rapid drop in downstream product prices.
From an inventory perspective, the monthly polysilicon supply-demand balance is barely maintained. If downstream production continues to decline, inflexible production line adjustments at the polysilicon end could lead to monthly inventory accumulation. Downstream enterprises, which placed fewer orders in the previous two months, were expected to restock this month. However, due to sharp price declines in early-stage downstream products and risk-averse sentiment, large-scale order placements have been cautious. Instead, buyers are adopting a strategy of high-frequency, low-volume polysilicon procurement, which, while resulting in higher-than-average industry prices, has slowed the rate of polysilicon price declines.
As of this week, two polysilicon enterprises have halted production for maintenance, reducing the number of operational firms to 11. China’s polysilicon output totaled 99,100 tons in April 2025, down 6.08% month-on-month. Market rumors suggest leading polysilicon producers plan to cut output to stabilize prices, but the Silicon Industry cautioned that frequent market shifts and expectations require verification against actual corporate announcements.
Wafer prices also showed no signs of improvement. This week, the average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline wafers fell 5.94% week-on-week to 0.95 yuan/piece; N-type G12R wafers dropped 1.79% to 1.10 yuan/piece; and N-type G12 wafers declined 3.70% to 1.30 yuan/piece.
The Silicon Industry linked the continued wafer price declines to weak terminal demand, oversupply, and high inventory levels, which have fueled bearish market sentiment. While leading firms are attempting to stabilize prices, some second- and third-tier enterprises, facing cash flow pressures and quality concerns, are selling at lower prices. Downstream buyers, confronted with low-cost supply and sluggish demand, are resisting higher wafer prices, leading to sustained price declines amid market competition.
Overall wafer operating rates dipped slightly to around 55% this week. First-tier enterprises maintained operating rates of 55% and 56%, while integrated firms operated between 58–80%, and other enterprises ranged from 55–80%.
Notably, driven by installation rush in early April, wafer, cell, and module prices surged over 10% from the year’s start, with N-type G12R wafer prices jumping 28.33%. However, after the May Day holiday, downstream module and cell orders plummeted, causing prices to revert to or below early-year levels.
Regarding the post-rush impact on wafer prices, the Silicon Industry expects short-term terminal demand weakness to drive further declines in cell and module prices, with wafer prices likely following suit. However, current wafer prices are approaching cost levels for most firms, potentially strengthening their willingness to stabilize prices. Additionally, seasonal demand (e.g., Q3 installation peaks) could reverse market trends, suggesting a mid-to-long-term price rebound as demand recovers.
In the cell segment, InfoLink data show that 183N cells fell to 0.26 yuan/W this week, while 210RN and 210N cells remained flat at 0.265 yuan/W and 0.28 yuan/W, respectively.
InfoLink observed that weak terminal demand and falling upstream wafer prices continue to pressure cell prices, with intense market negotiations. Module makers are pushing 183N cell prices toward 0.255 yuan/W, though leading cell manufacturers have shown low acceptance this week. Notably, 210R cell prices stabilized temporarily as some producers attempted to raise prices and retracted earlier low-price orders, but next week’s delivery performance will require monitoring.
Overall, cell production schedules for May remained largely unchanged from early-month plans, with severe supply-demand imbalances persisting. Cell prices are likely to continue declining in tandem with upstream wafer prices in the short term.
For modules, demand in early May was still supported by leftover projects from prior periods, but late-month demand appears weak, with high market uncertainty persisting through July–August.
