This week, the transaction price range for n-type polysilicon (recycled materials) was 40,000-49,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 41,700 RMB/ton, up 12.4% week-on-week (WoW). The price range for n-type granular silicon stood at 40,000-45,000 RMB/ton, with an average of 41,000 RMB/ton, marking a 15.2% WoW increase.
The upward trend in polysilicon prices further consolidated this week. Compared to last week, when most manufacturers raised prices but saw limited actual transactions, market activity improved significantly, with around six companies securing new orders, leading to a substantial increase in overall transaction volume. The price range of 40,000-49,000 RMB/ton showed notable polarization, with most orders clustered at either end of the range. This divergence stems from:
- Some producers, benefiting from cost advantages like captive power plants, were able to transact at relatively lower prices.
- Meanwhile, larger manufacturers faced higher costs due to underutilized production lines but maintained premium pricing thanks to stable quality and supply reliability.
Currently, nine domestic polysilicon producers remain operational, with three firms gradually resuming production at certain facilities. However, the impact on July supply will be limited, with full capacity expected to ramp up in August. Based on production schedules, July output is estimated at ~105,000 tons, rising slightly to ~110,000 tons in August—aligning with downstream demand, which remains steady at ~110,000 tons/month, keeping inventory pressure in check.
This week’s wide price gap of 9,000 RMB/ton for recycled materials is unlikely to persist, driven by two factors:
- Downstream cost pressures will push buyers toward more competitively priced supply, lifting the lower end of the range.
- Fluctuating production costs (e.g., electricity rates, energy consumption, utilization rates) may compress the higher end. Thus, while the current price spread is unsustainable, the upward trend in average prices remains clear.
Although polysilicon prices have risen, fundamental support remains weak with no substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, prices will likely continue a modest, cautious uptrend. A sustained rally may only emerge if:
- Some wafer producers halt or cut output due to high material costs and weak downstream pricing.
- Improved wafer supply-demand dynamics boost acceptance of higher silicon prices.
- Polysilicon producers face shutdowns from unviable costs, tightening supply.
Under these combined effects—supply contraction, stronger downstream acceptance, and improved market sentiment—the polysilicon market could gradually return to rational growth.
