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Polysilicon prices dive deeper, recovery unlikely

Polysilicon prices in China have hit rock bottom, dropping to as low as CNY 40/kg, according to the latest report from the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on April 17.

Source: Silicon Industry Branch of China; Chart: Solarbe Global

Compared to prices on April 10, polysilicon prices continued to decline, hitting historical lows for both n-type and p-type materials. The price gap between n-type and p-type silicon has also narrowed, reaching only CNY 5.4/kg.

Sources told Solarbe that there was an increase in order volume in the polysilicon market, with many companies adopting weekly order signing models, leading to more frequent price changes.

Polysilicon inventory has accumulated to over 22 days’ worth, with no plans for production reduction from manufacturers. Additionally, some companies are still ramping up production capacity, with overall production in April expected to reach around 180,000 tons.

In the short term, the polysilicon segment is facing a significant surplus situation, with prices unlikely to bottom out until there is substantial production curtailment.

Solarbe analysts believe that this round of polysilicon price reduction will substantially accelerate the elimination of backward capacity.

Regarding silicon wafers and cells, prices remained stable this week. As of this week, silicon wafer inventory remains at 3.5-4 billion pieces, and prices are expected to continue to remain stable in the second quarter.

As for solar modules, prices continued to decline.

The first batch of PV module procurement by China Huadian Corporation in 2024 saw bid prices decrease compared to recent bids by other central enterprises, setting a new record low for module prices.

Overall, the entire PV industry chain is rapidly advancing n-type technology iteration, and the competition for capacity elimination is becoming increasingly fierce, indicating that the comprehensive n-type era may arrive ahead of schedule.

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