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Solar module prices dip again, signaling market volatility

In the wake of a brief price increase, solar module costs are once again trending downward, indicating a renewed decline in China’s tender market.

Recent analyses of solar tenders in Shandong Zhongya and Yunnan Energy Investment reveal that continuous rises in polysilicon costs are causing challenges for solar cell and module companies. Responding to these cost shifts, some companies have raised prices in recent tenders.

However, industry insiders are skeptical about the sustainability of this price surge. Discussions suggest that in the first half of 2024, as technology advances, the supply-demand dynamics may face a period of chaos, resulting in fluctuating tender prices.

Despite oversupply and increased production rates among leading brands, market prices are expected to enter a phase of volatility.

Taking an example from Zhongling Xingneng’s 800 MW solar module tender for 2024, many companies submitted quotes below expectations.

In Segment 1, where 300 MW p-type modules with a power output of 550W and above were required, 21 companies participated with quotes ranging from 0.805 to 0.891 CNY/W. In Segment 2, which requires 500 MW n-type modules with a power output of 575W and above, 21 companies participated with quotes ranging from 0.84 to 0.97 CNY/W.

Among the 20 companies competing in both segments, the n-p price difference varied from 0.01 to 0.079 CNY/W.

Considering these factors, with no significant changes in costs, the bid price difference between Zhongling Xingneng’s module tender and Yunnan Energy Investment should be around 0.015-0.02 CNY/W.

However, the actual average bid price difference between the two tenders exceeds 0.06 CNY/W, indicating intense market competition.

Solarbe analysts believe that with major market players eager to secure orders, subsequent tenders may continue to witness relatively low prices.

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